关键词: 人口结构, 环境污染, 有限混合模型, 异质性

Abstract: Environmental pollution is affected by population structure change and has obvious spatial heterogeneity. However, most of the existing relevant studies make subjective spatial classification of samples, which will cause the deviation of empirical results. For this reason, this paper introduces a finite mixture model with concomitant variables for the first time to objectively classify the panel data of China?s provinces from 2000 to 2020, and then discusses the heterogeneous characteristics of the impact of population structure on environmental pollution. The results show that: first, the influence of population structure on environmental pollution can be described in detail by using a finite mixture model with 2 groups. Second, by introducing technological innovation and industrial structure as the concomitant variables, it can be seen that both of them can effectively alleviate the negative impact of aging on environmental pollution, and enhance the role of human capital and urbanization in reducing pollution. Third, more importantly, group conversion occurred in 22 provinces during the investigation period, and the decisive role of technological innovation in group conversion is obviously stronger than that of industrial structure upgrading. This paper provides a useful reference for China?s environmental pollution control under the background of population structure change.

Key words: Population Structure, Environmental Pollution, Finite Mixture Model, Heterogeneity